Political Overview 03.11.2025

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Political Overview by Bespoke Business Development’s political risk advisory team.

In this update, we spotlight the upcoming U.S.-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, China imposes new tariffs on Canada, Mexico celebrates a temporary suspension of U.S. tariffs, and South Korea anticipates a ruling on President Yoon’s impeachment. Meanwhile, cabinet reshuffles are expected in Brazil and Greece, Japan prepares to release a key economic indicator, and national budgets are due in South Africa and Ghana.

Global Snapshot

Ahead of the U.S.-Ukraine discussions set for 11 March in Jeddah, our Central and Eastern Europe advisor Andrius Tursa provides insights:

  • Purpose of the Talks:
    Kyiv aims to strengthen relations with the Trump administration and address diverging views on ceasefire terms with Russia. A critical milestone will be the potential signing of the long-negotiated critical minerals agreement, which could reignite U.S. military and intelligence backing. However, this support may be used as leverage by Washington to extract concessions from Kyiv, including territorial compromises or premature elections.
  • Ceasefire Implications:
    Security guarantees remain the central issue. Despite military setbacks, President Zelensky is unlikely to accept a U.S.-brokered ceasefire that doesn’t align with Ukraine’s core interests.

What to Watch

ASIA-PACIFIC

  • China/Canada:
    On 8 March, China announced new tariffs on select Canadian agricultural and food imports, in response to Canada’s earlier tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum. However, Beijing has not targeted canola exports, suggesting openness to negotiation.
  • South Korea:
    A ruling on President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment may come later this week. If upheld, a new election must occur within 60 days. If dismissed, Yoon could resume office, though he remains under investigation for declaring martial law in December.
  • Japan:
    Initial results from annual wage negotiations are expected this week. Labor unions are pushing for wage hikes over 6%, with business leaders also supporting increases to drive real wage growth amid continued inflation and stagnant wages.

EUROPE

  • Romania:
    Far-right candidate Calin Georgescu has been disqualified from the May presidential race, pending appeal. Right-wing parties are mobilizing protests and may back George Simion as a replacement. Final candidate registration closes 15 March.
  • Greece:
    After surviving a no-confidence vote tied to the Tempe train disaster anniversary, Prime Minister Mitsotakis is expected to announce a cabinet reshuffle. The move aims to revive public support while maintaining party cohesion.

LATIN AMERICA

  • Brazil:
    President Lula is finalizing a cabinet reshuffle, starting with appointing Gleisi Hoffman as Institutional Relations Minister. While the move drew criticism from centrist allies, major defections are not expected. Hoffman must now balance left-wing policies with centrist support in Congress.
  • Mexico:
    President Claudia Sheinbaum converted a 9 March rally into a celebration of the U.S. tariff reprieve secured last week. With her approval rating at 85%, she emphasized that upcoming tariffs may not apply due to existing trade agreements. Nonetheless, some tariffs are still set to take effect from 12 March.

AFRICA

  • South Africa:
    Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will present the postponed 2025/26 budget on 12 March. A potential VAT increase has stirred tensions within the GNU coalition, though recent talks suggest a compromise may be reached involving modest tax hikes and restrained spending.
  • Ghana:
    Finance Minister Ato Forson will deliver his first budget on 11 March, detailing economic policies under President Mahama. The plan will reflect input from the recent National Economic Dialogue held earlier this month.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of Bespoke Business Development. They are intended to encourage discussion and reflection, rather than serve as legal, financial, accounting, tax, or professional advice.