Cross-border greenfield investment announcements are signaling a meaningful redrawing of global production footprints, trade corridors, and competitive dynamics.
Key takeaways
FDI as a catalyst. Foreign direct investment has long done more than fund projects: it transfers know-how, seeds supplier ecosystems, and pulls in additional domestic capital. Today’s wave of greenfield announcements points to another step-change.
Capital is concentrating in “future-shaping” sectors. Since 2022, roughly three-quarters of cross-border announcements have targeted advanced manufacturing, AI/data infrastructure, and the resource base that powers them (energy and critical minerals)—up from about half before 2020. Historically, 60–80% of announced projects go on to be built.
Geopolitics is steering flows. Advanced economies are investing more with one another—especially into the United States—while announced flows to China from these economies have fallen sharply. At the same time, China has shifted from net recipient to active outbound investor in future-shaping sectors, with rising announcements into Europe, Latin America, and MENA. Emerging economies continue to attract pledges from across blocs.
Megadeals dominate value. Projects of $1B+ are only ~1% of deals but now account for about half of announced value (up from one-third five years ago). Data centers, semiconductor fabs, and gigafactories are capital-intensive—and getting bigger.
Potential step-changes in capacity. If realized, announcements since 2022 could more than quadruple battery capacity outside China, nearly double global data-center capacity that powers AI, and elevate the United States into the top tier of leading-edge semiconductor producers. These patterns offer early signals of the future map of trade and production.
1) FDI is increasingly molding the industries of the future
Greenfield FDI is tilting toward AI infrastructure (especially hyperscale data centers), semiconductors, EVs and batteries, and other advanced manufacturing (from pharmaceuticals to robotics), plus the metals/minerals and energy needed to support them.
Mix shift. From 2015–2019 to 2022–mid-2025, the share of greenfield announcements in future-shaping sectors and resources rose from ~55% to ~75% (in real 2024 dollars). Energy and advanced manufacturing saw the largest dollar increases, while conventional sectors (basic manufacturing; operational and professional services) declined more than 30%.
2025 pulse. Despite broader uncertainty and trade frictions, announcements in data centers and semiconductor fabs accelerated—while most other categories softened and announcement rates in many regions hit 20-year lows.
Realization rates. Past evidence suggests 60–80% of announced projects are ultimately built; more than half of the largest post-2022 projects in future-shaping sectors are already under construction or live.
Where growth is most pronounced
AI infrastructure. Since 2022, data centers represent >85% of greenfield FDI in communications/software (≈$170B annually), with 2025 on pace for a record. Campus sizes are scaling from tens of MW to multi-GW.
Semiconductors. Advanced manufacturing accounts for about one-quarter of all announcements since 2022; roughly one-third of that (≈$115B per year) targets new fabs—especially leading-edge capacity in the United States.
Batteries & EVs. Another third of advanced-manufacturing announcements focus on EV lines and battery gigafactories. Battery projects outside China could more than quadruple 2022 capacity if built.
Resources. Metals/minerals announcements since 2022 are ~50% critical-minerals extraction/refining (copper, lithium, nickel) and ~50%—often lower-emissions—steel value chain. Energy announcements skew heavily toward low-emissions technologies (renewables and electrolytic hydrogen), though 2025 saw pullbacks in several subsegments.
Outside today’s hubs, the step-change could be larger
Data centers: New FDI could add almost 2× the entire 2022 capacity outside the U.S. and China.
Leading-edge semiconductors: FDI could add ~60% to 2022 global capacity—and nearly 5× outside Taiwan and South Korea.
EV batteries: Capacity outside China could rise ~4× 2022 levels.
By contrast, aggregate effects in conventional oil/gas extraction look modest (<5% of 2022 capacity), though LNG capacity could climb by as much as ~25%, potentially redrawing gas trade routes. Low-emissions hydrogen has massive announced volumes but low conversion so far.
2) Bigger bets—and a shorter geopolitical leash
Megadeals are the growth engine
~$200B-per-year class of $1B+ projects now accounts for ~half of all announced value (up from ~30%). In resources and advanced manufacturing, megadeals are ~60% of value; in digital infrastructure, ~40%.
Deal sizes are rising as technologies scale and “winner-takes-most” dynamics intensify. A single leading-edge fab can cost $10B+; gigafactories and multi-hundred-MW data centers commonly run $1B+.
Announcements are clustering among geopolitically closer partners
The geopolitical distance of FDI announcements has fallen by >20% since 2010 and roughly twice as fast as goods trade since 2017.
Advanced-economy MNCs (notably in autos and semis) have shifted announcements toward the U.S. and Europe and away from China.
China-headquartered firms have increased outbound announcements, including into Europe, Mexico, and MENA, while some also pivot toward closer partners in Asia and Latin America.
Emerging-economy MNCs generally maintain stable geopolitical ranges, reflecting existing regional footprints and sector mixes.
Three broad sector patterns
Expansion: Higher value and greater geopolitical distance (e.g., data centers; metals/minerals).
Reconfiguration: Higher value and shorter geopolitical distance (e.g., advanced manufacturing, energy).
Retreat: Lower value, especially across distant corridors (e.g., conventional industries).
3) How today’s announcements could reset industry dynamics
AI data centers: global build-out, local compliance
Outside the U.S. and China, FDI could supply >50% of capacity growth to 2030. U.S. hyperscalers lead announced outflows, expanding in Europe, India, Southeast Asia, and the Gulf. New mega-campuses face constraints: grid access, siting, permitting, and massive power demand (global data centers could reach ~5% of electricity by 2030; individual campuses may demand 10–15% of a metro’s current load).
Critical minerals: securing inputs and adding local value
Announced FDI in critical minerals has doubled since pre-pandemic. Chinese firms remain significant outbound investors (expanding into Europe and North Africa), while advanced-economy firms are stepping up projects in North America and allied markets. If delivered, FDI could lift copper output by ~10% and lithium by 30%+ versus 2022—and gradually localize segments of refining.
Leading-edge semiconductors: diversifying the frontier
Since 2022, ~$115B/yr in semiconductor announcements—half for leading-edge. If realized, FDI could push Europe+Japan+U.S. from ~10% of 2022 leading-edge capacity to >30% by 2030, with the U.S. potentially surpassing 20%. Early sites in the U.S. and Europe are under construction or live. Challenges persist: full-stack ecosystem depth, operating-cost differentials, utilities, and regulatory complexity.
EVs and batteries: a more multipolar footprint
Since 2022, ~$110B/yr in EV/battery announcements—nearly all outside China. Europe and the U.S. lead inflows; Chinese firms are major investors in Europe and multiple emerging economies (Morocco, Vietnam, Mexico, Türkiye, Malaysia). If built, capacity outside China could more than quadruple 2022 levels. Policy shifts and supply-chain rules may affect realization timelines.
Energy: targeted rewiring rather than wholesale change
Upstream oil & gas: modest aggregate impact; big projects cluster in Brazil and Guyana, opening alternative supply routes.
LNG: announced projects could lift capacity by ~25%, diversifying away from pipelines and chokepoints; new flows could emerge from Latin America and North America’s Pacific coast.
Renewables: large in value but mostly domestic-capex driven; offshore wind is the exception with sizable cross-border projects (though delays are common).
Low-emissions hydrogen: very large announced pipeline, but low conversion to construction so far; economics and delivery models remain uncertain.
4) How regions’ competitiveness is shifting
United States: The standout magnet. Post-2022 inflows roughly doubled versus pre-pandemic, with advanced Asia (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) driving semiconductor and EV/battery megadeals. Early 2025 saw a further surge led by headline semiconductor announcements.
Europe (UK+EU): Solid gains (≈+40% vs. pre-pandemic), with data centers the clearest growth engine. Inflows from Chinese automakers and battery makers have risen; however, Europe attracted fewer advanced-Asia megadeals than North America.
Advanced Asia: Inflows up, but relative share slipped versus the U.S.; outbound remains large, particularly in advanced manufacturing.
China: Announced inflows down about two-thirds across sectors; meanwhile, outbound announcements climbed in autos/electronics and metals/minerals—pivoting from investee to investor in future-shaping industries.
Emerging Asia: Mixed picture—declines in fossil/conventional sectors but near-doubling of future-shaping inflows to select hubs (India, Malaysia), with semis/data centers as bright spots.
Latin America, MENA, Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth largely energy-driven (fossil in LatAm; low-emissions hydrogen in MENA/SSA). Saudi Arabia and the UAE show broader, more diversified pipelines (resources, data centers, advanced manufacturing), though many mega-projects are still pre-construction.
Concentration risk: In ~100 (mostly smaller) economies, three or fewer investors account for >50% of announced inflows since 2022. Even large economies can be shaped by a handful of megadeals, heightening both upside and execution risk.
What leaders can do now
Map ecosystems early. Treat announcements as lead indicators. New hubs (e.g., semis in Arizona or Ireland; giga-campuses in Europe or the Gulf) create demand ripples across tools, chemicals, components, logistics, construction, housing, and services. Position to “sell the shovels.”
Pre-build trade corridors. FDI flows foreshadow the re-routing of goods, services, data, and energy. Logistics, payments, and trade-finance players can move first where corridors are likeliest to expand.
Rethink competitive terrain. Announcements reveal where capacity will land—and where overcapacity risks could emerge (e.g., EVs, steel). Use them to shape partnerships, M&A pipelines, JV targets, and market-entry timing.
Bolster enabling conditions. For policymakers and regional leaders: pair incentives with grid upgrades, land/permitting acceleration, workforce programs, supplier development, and infrastructure (ports, roads, water, transmission).
Balance speed with option value. Megadeals are bigger, timelines longer, and policy variables heavier. Stage investments, diversify supplier bases, and preserve flexibility across scenarios.
Closing note
Foreign direct investment has repeatedly seeded new industries and export strength. Today’s announcements suggest another major redraw: more capital in future-shaping sectors, larger deal sizes, tighter geopolitical clustering, and the emergence of new hubs. For executives and policymakers, systematically tracking and interpreting the FDI pipeline can provide practical foresight on where capabilities, trade, and competitiveness are heading next.
This report, “The FDI shake-up: How foreign direct investment today may shape industry and trade tomorrow,” is part of Bespoke Business Development’s ongoing research into global interconnections.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of Bespoke Business Development. They are intended to encourage discussion and reflection, rather than serve as legal, financial, accounting, tax, or professional advice.
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