Major US banks open this week's earnings season, with JPMorgan reporting Tuesday alongside Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. Management has already raised 2026 guidance for net interest income and expenses, while September commentary pointed to investment-banking fees and markets revenue tracking up by a mid-to-high-teens percentage.
Third-quarter earnings season begins in earnest the week of Oct. 12, and expectations for S&P 500 companies, which represent about 80% of the total U.S. stock market capitalization, are very high. According to FactSet, the S&P 500 is expected to post year-over-year earnings growth of 29.5% for the third quarter, which would mark the third consecutive quarter of earnings growth above 25%. Not only is that an impressive pace of growth for corporate earnings, but that estimate has been rising.
Despite this, the American consumer remains resilient which is expected to bode well for company earnings this quarter. Yet headwinds persist: inflation is hovering around 3.4% to 3.7%, still quite a bit higher than the Fed's target of 2%. Markets expect the Fed to raise rates at both remaining 2026 meetings as inflation stays high, with fixed income traders seeing Oct. 28 as the most likely point for the next move, which would lift the federal funds rate to 4% to 4.25% from its current 3.75% to 4% range.
Crude oil prices declined on Monday after US President Donald Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to halt attacks on each other's energy facilities, with Brent crude futures falling $1.37, or 1.31%, to $103.35 a barrel. President Donald Trump's announcement of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire has raised doubts over its credibility after Russian strikes continued within hours and Moscow failed to confirm an agreement, though oil and diesel prices fell following the announcement, with limited relief expected as damaged Russian refineries constrain any recovery in fuel exports.
Markets expect the Fed to raise rates at both remaining 2026 meetings as inflation stays high, with investors watching October and December decisions closely. After Warsh's press conference, the market saw a 49% chance of a hike in October, up from 40% on Wednesday morning. The chances of at least one more hike this year stood at 87%, compared with 77% Wednesday morning.
India's financial services sector recorded 67 deals worth $7.3 billion in Q3 2026, with total deal value rising 129 per cent quarter-on-quarter as transaction volumes increased marginally from 65 to 67. The value-led acceleration was driven by large-ticket mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity and public-market issuances, including the two major initial public offerings (IPO).
October 11 was marked by major players moving to acquire promising AI startups in the global AI news landscape. Amazon is in talks for an acquisition worth approximately $7 billion, and Nvidia is considering a plan to buy out an investee entirely.
The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned of the disruptive threat from artificial intelligence to the labor market and taxation, urging policymakers to rethink education and act now to help society adapt. "It is a slow-moving tsunami, but tsunami none the less," Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Monday during her first appearance at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok.
September hiring slowed, but low layoffs and strong demand for critical skills signal a labor market that remains stable and selective. Payroll gains came in well below forecasts, revisions reduced previously reported job growth, and hiring activity remains uneven across industries. At the same time, labor force participation increased and layoffs remain limited, creating a cautious rather than contracting market. US-based employers announced plans to hire 90,787 workers in September, the weakest September total since 2011, marking a -23% decline from the 117,313 recorded in September 2025.
Retail sales this holiday season are projected to top $1.7 trillion, according to a recent ICSC report. During the upcoming holiday season, retail sales are predicted to grow between 4.3% and 4.9% from a year prior, surpassing $1.7 trillion. The Mastercard Economics Institute's 2026 holiday forecast projects the strongest retail sales growth in four years, with AI influencing how consumers discover products, compare options and shop earlier.
Strong Q3 earnings growth of 29.5% expected for the S&P 500 should provide some support to equity markets this week, and the American consumer remains resilient. But for small and mid-sized businesses, the signals are mixed. Payroll gains came in well below forecasts at +29,000 in September, with July and August revisions reducing combined employment by 60,000, and the private sector added only 46,000 jobs. Managers should prepare for tighter labor competition as employers become more selective, and watch for continued hiring restraint in sectors like information, professional services and finance while healthcare, construction and manufacturing hold up.
Two more Fed rate hikes are now expected by year-end, with the October 28 meeting seen as the most likely point for the next 25-basis-point move, lifting the federal funds rate to 4% to 4.25%. Businesses dependent on credit and working capital should reassess financing plans now; rising rates will make new borrowing more expensive. On the consumer side, expect strong holiday spending with 5.5% projected growth year-over-year, with online sales forecast to grow 11% but in-store retail showing a surprising 3.6% gain, the strongest in four years. For retail-facing and logistics businesses, early holiday inventory planning and staffing decisions made weeks ago will be tested in the coming months.