Core Personal Consumption Expenditures rose just 0.2% month-over-month in August, below the forecast of 0.3%, and the annual rate eased to 3.0%. The softer reading gave the Federal Reserve room to breathe after it raised rates by 25 basis points in September, marking the first hike in nearly three years.
New York Fed President John Williams, the second-ranking official on the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee, pushed back on an October rate hike, saying the Fed has "no need for urgency" and that "with the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information". His comments were a stark shift from expectations just days earlier.
Last week, markets predicted a 70% probability of an October rate hike; today, it has dropped below 50%, and according to CME FedWatch, the chance of an October hike is now close to a coin flip. The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for October 28. For small and mid-sized business operators, lower odds of an October hike translate into potential relief on borrowing costs, though the US 10-year yield remains elevated at 5.28%, close to multi-decade highs, keeping long-term financing expensive.
The softer inflation print comes as the labor market shows resilience. Private-sector companies added 90,000 jobs in September, up from 36,000 the prior month and better than the Wall Street consensus for 68,000, according to ADP. The payrolls processing firm's count precedes Friday's official nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with Wall Street expecting a gain of 84,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.1%.
The Nikkei 225 rose 3.1% to 68,840 on chip and AI stocks, outpacing mixed US performance. The Nikkei 225 rose 3.1% to 68,840 on chip and AI stocks, while South Korea's KOSPI gained 1.6% to 6,946 and South Korea's September exports jumped 83.5% year-over-year. On Wall Street, the US500 rose to 7,696 points on October 1, 2026, gaining 0.58% from the previous session.
US-Iran talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz keep oil swinging, with Brent down 1.4% to about $96.7 and WTI at $88.9. Continued uncertainty about Gulf shipping remains a core supply-side risk for businesses dependent on energy and logistics.
US District Court Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguin approved the settlement, clearing the way for Paramount to close its acquisition of Warner Bros., with the merger expected to close October 6, 2026. The deal combines the movie studio with the Paramount studio, HBO Max with Paramount+, MTV with Discovery, and CBS News with CNN, creating one of the biggest media companies in the world.
Five major M&A transactions announced in the second half of September 2026 add up to roughly $8.35 billion, spanning leisure travel, radiopharmaceuticals, payments, electrical distribution, and oilfield water infrastructure. Telix Pharmaceuticals to merge with ITM Isotope Technologies Munich SE for $1.65 billion, and Priority Technology Holdings will be taken private for about $1.6 billion.
The iPhone Duo is priced at $1,999 with 256GB storage and comes in two colors. Preorders for Apple's new foldable begin on October 16, and the device will be available on October 23. Analysts think the iPhone Duo could give the foldables market a lift, make Apple a real competitor to Samsung, and ship roughly 5 million units by the end of 2026.
Sen. Josh Hawley used a Senate hearing on Wednesday to call for new artificial intelligence regulations, including through his own upcoming legislation that would clarify liability for "rogue" AI hacking incidents. The move signals mounting congressional pressure to establish clear legal frameworks for AI deployment in enterprises.
News of the plan to put Waldron in place as Goldman CEO, which could happen as soon as next year, was first reported by the Wall Street Journal on Monday. Citing sources familiar with the matter, the paper reported that Goldman's board has discussed a plan for Waldron to take over after Solomon's eight-year run as chief executive. To keep him, Goldman gave Waldron an $80 million retention package that lasts through 2030.
The Employment Situation for September 2026 is scheduled to be published on Friday, October 2, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. (ET). Economists estimate the jobs report due Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will show nonfarm payrolls rose about 90,000 after climbing in the prior month by the most since March. The unemployment rate is seen remaining at a one-year low of 4.1%. A stronger-than-expected report could reignite rate-hike talk.
The softer inflation print from Wednesday removed near-term pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike rates again in October, a relief for small and mid-sized business operators facing elevated borrowing costs. Core PCE rose just 0.2% month-over-month in August, below forecast, and Fed officials signaled patience. However, long-term financing rates remain sticky high, so locking in debt refinancing now rather than waiting could still make sense for cash-constrained operators. The labor market remains resilient, with ADP reporting 90,000 private-sector job additions in September, well above expectations, which should support consumer spending heading into Q4. Watch Friday's official jobs report; a significant miss could shift the entire Fed calculus again.
For tech-heavy and logistics-focused operators, geopolitical energy risk persists with Strait of Hormuz talks still uncertain. Oil remains volatile in the mid-$90s per barrel, so firms reliant on fuel surcharges or energy-sensitive supply chains should lock in hedges where feasible. On the positive side, Apple's iPhone Duo launch in October signals major enterprise opportunity for distributors, retailers, and mobility solution providers planning holiday season pushes. Lastly, ongoing M&A activity and bank leadership transitions reflect economic confidence at scale; small and mid-market operators looking to sell or refinance assets should be aware that large-cap players remain actively acquiring in healthcare, tech, and specialty sectors.