SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) posts its first quarterly earnings as a public company Tuesday after the market close, giving Wall Street its initial look at audited financials for a three-segment enterprise spanning space, satellite connectivity, and artificial intelligence following the February 2026 integration of xAI and X. The company priced its IPO at $135 a share in June, raising $85.7 billion in the largest initial public offering in history, but shares have since fallen more than 45% from their peak of $225.64 and closed Monday at $114.53.
The report triggers the first tranche of a staggered insider lock-up release: starting Thursday, insiders may sell up to 20% of their restricted holdings, representing as many as 911.5 million shares. A further 10% could be released if the stock had closed more than 30% above its IPO price on at least five of the ten sessions before the report, a threshold the stock did not meet. Founder Elon Musk remains subject to the full one-year restriction period.
Analysts are watching four issues above all others: Starlink subscriber growth and segment profitability, AI capital expenditure and expected returns, Starship launch cadence, and management's guidance for the rest of 2026. As of March 31, Starlink had 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries, up 105% from a year earlier, and the service generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025. SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.28 billion in Q1 2026 on $4.69 billion in revenue; analysts expect Q2 to show meaningful improvement. The stock currently trades at roughly 49 times expected revenue.
The earnings call begins at 4:30 p.m. ET as a live audio-only webcast and will be streamed on X at @SpaceX. Management is expected to address all three business segments: Space, Connectivity, and AI infrastructure. Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating and $300 price target, betting primarily on long-term enterprise AI growth, though the consensus is wide given the new corporate structure and the scale of capital commitments.
Palantir reported Q2 2026 revenue of $1.94 billion, up 93% year over year and ahead of the $1.81 billion Wall Street consensus, with adjusted EPS of 41 cents beating the 35-cent estimate. US commercial revenue climbed 149% and US government revenue rose 90%, driving the company to raise its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $8.15 to $8.16 billion. Shares climbed 13% in Monday after-hours and an additional 16% in Tuesday premarket, as the result met the guidance threshold analysts had identified as necessary to support the stock's elevated valuation.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 3 on July 29 to leave the benchmark federal funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, its fifth consecutive hold, as the labor market remained consistent with maximum employment but inflation stayed above the 2 percent target. Core inflation and the Iran conflict's energy-price shock have shifted market expectations from rate cuts toward a possible hike, with nearly half of policymakers at the June meeting saying they would support an increase later in 2026. The prime rate stays at 6.75 percent, keeping SBA 7(a) variable loan caps in the 9 to 11.5 percent range for small business borrowers.
Brent crude held near $84 a barrel on Tuesday after losing almost 5% on Monday, when President Trump called off a planned military strike on Iran and said new negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz would begin. Trump told reporters the US was talking about having the strait open 'literally by tomorrow,' though Iran denied direct talks were underway while signaling that discussions with Oman were making progress. Oil surged more than 20% in July after renewed hostilities shattered the June interim peace agreement; the strait has been effectively closed to commercial shipping since late February, with just 10 ships transiting on July 23 compared with a normal daily flow of roughly 88.
OPEC+ approved another modest production increase on Monday, completing the planned restoration of supply cuts introduced in 2023 and leaving room to boost supplies further once the Middle East conflict ends. Saudi Arabia is under growing pressure on alternative export routes as Houthi attacks threaten Red Sea shipping and drone strikes near Egypt raise risks along the Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline corridor. The Energy Information Administration, in its July 7 short-term outlook, forecast global oil consumption would decrease by an average of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 before rebounding 2.0 million barrels per day in 2027 as prices drop and supply flows normalize.
Apple briefly removed Telegram from the App Store globally on Tuesday after its review process found content violating its ban on child sexual abuse material. The app was unavailable for users in the US, India, Australia, Singapore, and other markets, blocking new downloads and reinstalls while existing installations continued to work. Apple told 9to5Mac it restored the app after Telegram promptly removed the content and banned the responsible user; Telegram's GRAM token fell roughly 8% on the news before recovering. The incident amplified scrutiny of Telegram founder Pavel Durov, who faces an ongoing criminal case in France on charges including enabling distribution of child sexual abuse material.
Advanced Micro Devices reports after the close Tuesday alongside SpaceX, adding to an earnings week already headlined by Palantir's beat. The S&P 500 is tracking second-quarter earnings growth of 27% year over year excluding Alphabet and Amazon, running roughly 4% ahead of consensus expectations at the start of the season; with those two companies included, the broader index is on pace for 45% year-over-year growth. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.6% in Tuesday premarket as the earnings backdrop supported risk appetite.
With the Fed's benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, SBA 7(a) variable loan caps remain roughly 9 to 11.5 percent APR with the prime rate at 6.75 percent, while fixed-rate 7(a) caps run 9.5 to 13.5 percent. The Kansas City Fed's Small Business Lending Survey for Q1 2026 put average rates on new small business term loans in a range of 6.37 to 10.98 percent. The risk for owners planning capital investments or refinances: nearly half of FOMC members have endorsed a possible hike later in 2026 if energy-driven inflation re-accelerates, which would push all variable-rate borrowing costs higher without warning.
The brief but globally complete removal of Telegram from Apple's App Store Tuesday morning demonstrated how a single platform enforcement action can instantly cut off a business tool used by nearly one billion people worldwide. Small operators who rely on Telegram for customer messaging, community channels, or crypto payments found new-device onboarding blocked and app updates frozen for hours. The episode reinforces a broader operational risk: businesses dependent on a single distribution platform have no fallback when that platform acts, whether for policy, legal, or technical reasons.
The immediate takeaway for small and mid-sized business owners is a cautious positive: Palantir's blowout AI results and a near-record S&P 500 signal that corporate spending on technology is healthy, which tends to support vendor pipelines and advertising markets. The drop in oil from July's $90-plus peak toward $84 is genuine near-term relief for fuel costs and supply chains, but operators should treat it as provisional: the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic, diplomacy is unverified, and a single escalation could send energy prices surging again within days.
On financing and capital planning, the Fed's fifth consecutive hold keeps borrowing costs stable for now, but the 9-to-3 vote and the explicit hike threat from nearly half of policymakers mean variable-rate loans carry asymmetric risk. Owners considering SBA 7(a) financing should weigh whether to lock in a fixed rate before a possible hike. Separately, the Telegram episode is a reminder to audit platform dependencies: any critical customer communication or payment channel that runs solely through a third-party app store faces the same sudden-removal risk.