The U.S. military said early Saturday it had ended a seventh consecutive night of strikes against Iran, targeting bridges, coastal surveillance infrastructure, and logistics assets in southern Iran, as Kuwait and Bahrain reported intercepting additional Iranian projectiles. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated Saturday that his country had suspended all commitments under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, the agreement signed in June that was meant to end the conflict begun with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.
The practical impact on global commerce is severe. Commercial vessel crossings of the Strait of Hormuz u2014 which carried roughly 27% of the world's maritime crude oil and petroleum products before the conflict u2014 have fallen sharply since fighting resumed. India, the world's third-largest supplier of maritime crew members, ordered ship operators this week not to deploy Indian seafarers on vessels transiting the strait following the confirmed death of an Indian engineer on a vessel struck by Iranian forces.
Oil rose 2% above $80 per barrel on Friday as the escalation intensified, adding directly to the inflation pressures businesses are already managing. U.S. companies that had received a combined $71 billion in court-ordered tariff refunds after the Supreme Court struck down earlier tariffs report that the money is being consumed by war-driven energy and supply-chain costs rather than used to cut prices. McCormick and Company's CFO said the company would use the majority of its refund to offset higher input costs driven by the Middle East conflict.
Analysts warn the U.S. faces a limited set of options. Gasoline prices climbed back to an average of $4 per gallon nationally this weekend. With midterm elections approaching in November, the political calculus around the conflict is tightening. Fortune reported Saturday that the Iran situation has handed Trump a dilemma between sustained military escalation that risks further economic damage and any accommodation of Iranian control over the strait.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index confirmed a bear market Friday, falling roughly 20% from its late-June peak and 11% for the week, after Chinese startup Moonshot unveiled its Kimi K3 model u2014 a 2.8 trillion-parameter open-weight system it claims rivals leading U.S. AI offerings u2014 reviving the same investor fears sparked by DeepSeek in 2025. The S&P 500 lost 1.6% for the week and the Nasdaq shed 2.9%, while the semiconductor ETF posted its third weekly decline in four weeks. Analysts at Edward Jones characterized the selloff as a signal that the AI theme is 'maturing rather than breaking,' and noted that of the 47 S&P 500 companies that had reported earnings by Friday, 95% topped consensus EPS estimates.
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack said Friday she is hearing from business leaders that the central bank needs to take action on inflation, citing energy costs, supply-chain disruptions, insurance, and the AI data-center buildout as key drivers. She stopped short of endorsing a rate increase. Bond markets moved in the other direction, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling more than 4 basis points to 4.525% on Friday as investors sought safety, while the 30-year fell to 5.061%. Futures markets show the implied probability of at least one rate hike before year-end has climbed significantly from a month ago.
The U.S. Trade Representative finalized a 25% tariff on most Brazilian imports effective July 22, the conclusion of a year-long Section 301 investigation into Brazilian practices covering digital trade, ethanol market access, intellectual property, anti-corruption enforcement, and deforestation. Carve-outs exist for coffee, beef, oil, and goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs. A separate USTR forced-labor investigation is expected to conclude next week and could add another 12.5% duty on Brazilian goods, potentially bringing the total tariff burden to 37.5%. Brazil's President Lula called the action 'lamentable' and said his government would not falter in defending Brazilian sovereignty.
U.S. companies that received a combined $71 billion in tariff refunds after the Supreme Court struck down the emergency tariff authority say they are using the funds to absorb war-driven cost increases rather than pass savings to consumers or invest in growth. McCormick and Company's CFO said the Middle East conflict is 'really driving more inflation' and that most of the refund would offset higher costs. Some retailers, including BJ's Wholesale Club, have pledged to pass a portion back to shoppers. Analysts warn that ongoing geopolitical shocks are preventing any sustained relief from the tariff reversal.
Bankers at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase are scheduling meetings between Anthropic executives and prospective investors ahead of a potential IPO as early as October, according to Bloomberg and CNBC. The company filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC in June and was last valued at $965 billion after a $65 billion Series H funding round in May, briefly surpassing OpenAI's $852 billion private valuation. A successful listing would make Anthropic the first frontier AI lab to reach public markets and could set valuation benchmarks for the broader sector. OpenAI also filed confidentially with the SEC in June but has disclosed no additional details.
Netflix closed down more than 7% Friday after reporting second-quarter earnings of $0.80 per share on revenue of $12.56 billion u2014 slightly missing consensus u2014 and issuing third-quarter guidance that came in below Wall Street forecasts. The company also announced it will cut back its 'What We Watched' engagement reports from semi-annual to annual starting in 2027, which investors interpreted as reduced transparency. Netflix narrowed its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to $51 to $51.4 billion. The stock entered Friday already down 21% year-to-date.
Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to a small fraction of the 130 or more daily transits recorded before the conflict began, according to maritime tracking data. The United States completed a seventh consecutive night of strikes Saturday, targeting infrastructure to degrade Iran's ability to threaten vessels. Iran's suspension of its MOU commitments eliminates the framework that was meant to reopen the waterway within 60 days of the June 17 signing. Analysts expect Brent crude to remain elevated, with one oil analyst citing the upper $70s as a likely range but warning of potential spikes.
The collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is the most consequential near-term operating variable for most businesses. Fuel surcharges, elevated shipping insurance premiums, and longer rerouted delivery times are not temporary; with Iran having suspended the MOU and both sides escalating, there is no near-term resolution visible. Any business with goods moving through or dependent on Middle East-origin commodities should revisit freight contracts, fuel hedges, and supplier backup plans now.
The Brazil tariff clock is also running: the 25% duty takes effect July 22 with a possible additional 12.5% following within days. Operators importing any Brazilian goods not exempted u2014 the carve-out list is nearly 100 pages u2014 should consult their customs broker this weekend. More broadly, the Section 301 legal architecture is being used to rebuild tariffs across multiple trading partners, meaning this is likely a preview rather than a one-off action.